China's control over rare earth materials gives it leverage

 

Big Tech's earnings outpace those of the global market

 

Rare Earths, Rare Independence

 

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, VisualCapitalist

Source: China Water Risk Report, “Rare Earths: Shades Of Grey”

Investor’s Corner: A rising liquidity tide lifts all markets

Global liquidity is the stream of cash and credit flowing through the financial system – think of it as oxygen for a debt-based global economy. Economists track this through aggregated M2 money supply, which includes currencies and bank deposits across major economies. At nearly US$96 trillion today, it's one of the most powerful forces shaping markets, and it’s only growing bigger.

During the pandemic crisis in 2020, for example, a burst of stimulus helped cushion economies against a massive slump. Another wave came in 2024, offsetting the impact of higher interest rates. That’s probably a big reason why the economy has chugged along over the past couple of years and avoided a recession: liquidity has kept flowing despite rising rates.

The nuclear option

 

This Stock Rally Is Different 2025

 

Investors will likely need to look beyond the concentrated group of stocks that drove the market higher in recent years as benchmark returns become more modest and stock-picking opportunities emerge across a more diverse set of regions, sectors, and styles, according to Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist in Goldman Sachs Research. Equity markets face headwinds that weren’t present during past structural bull markets. These include elevated valuations, higher interest rates and inflation, slower expansion of world trade, sluggish economic growth, and rising demands on government spending.  Taken together, these factors mean that absolute returns are likely to be lower than during other sustained market rallies. But Oppenheimer says there could be opportunities for investors to outperform the broader stock market: Equity investors may benefit from diversification, both within the technology sector and across different industries. As global trade declines, investors may benefit from a focus on countries and companies that can specialize and dominate in their export markets, especially in services. Higher trade restrictions, a weaker dollar, and increased fiscal support and localization efforts may also create investment opportunities in domestically focused companies with strong market positions. In Europe, a renewed emphasis on strategic industries and self-reliance is expected to drive investment, potentially improving margins and returns in certain key sectors.

Bull in the China shop 公牛闯进陶瓷店

 

公牛闯进陶瓷店

我们的预测简单易懂。我们以2月4日立春为传统新春的起点，以运势分来指代恒指每月走势的相对强弱。

这一年开局不错，勤劳老鼠的辛勤工作将延续至牛年，因此要到3月某个时点人们才会意识到牛没有恪守本分。春末，鼠牛化干戈为玉帛，金牛唤醒自己，开始投入工作。夏季生活十分惬意，金牛在金融田地里日夜耕作。我们预计这波涨势在8月前后触顶。秋收时节将出现获利回吐，有两个地支之间的冲突还会引发短时间快速下挫。温和下跌之后，这一年余下时间将迎来缓慢反弹，然后在冬季收官时奋力一搏。

今年我们挚爱的恒指土鸡有白虎星造访，可能会出现结构性不确定引发的问题。不过，禄勋星的庇佑可以将损失最小化。金匮星虽然微弱，但也可以有所作为，与数据收集和其他有价值的信息库相关的股票钱途无量。

Bull in the China shop

Reading our forecast is relatively simple. We adopt Li Chun, 4 February, as the traditional spring start to the year, and use a fortune scale to indicate the relative size of the Hang Seng’s likely movement each month.

The year should start well, as industrious Rat's hard work will carry over into the Ox year. It will be sometime in March before everyone realises the Ox has been sleeping on the job. In the late spring, these two zodiacs will resolve their issues and the Ox will rouse itself and get to work. During summer, the living is more than easy and the Ox will plough through financial fields day and night. We expect this rally to peak around August, and the autumn harvest will see profit-taking as well as a short, sharp decline caused by the conflict between two of the twelve earthly branches. After a modest drop, the remainder of the year will see a slow recovery and then a strong final push through winter’s end.

Our Earth Rooster has the White Tiger star this year, which may lead to issues arising from structural uncertainties. However, any damage will be minimal as assistance from the court via the Salary and Merit star is available. Although weak, the Golden Cabinet star is also present and could see stocks associated with data collection and other valuable information repositories flourish.

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2021/index.cfm

2020年亚洲股市赢家